In yesterday’s piece I was banging on about two trends in the S&P500: the longer-term downtrend and the shorter-term uptrend. Well yesterday, that shorter-term uptrend line broke and is now invalid. And here’s the after: What can we then expect? One possibility is a full-on downtrend resumes, another is lots of choppy action one way or the other. Of course, another is it’s a fake-out.
Good call Dominic - from somebody who is still short Silver, although who could have almost trebled his money by now if he'd capitalised on the volatility by just covering at the worst of each sell-off of the past 4-5 weeks; rather than holding the short; not such a great call on my part.
I have to say that #HedgeyeNation were positioned well for this further sell-off, although my implementation of it by shorting the NASDAQ has still proved tricky - shorting and holding is a bad strategy. Still, if the sell-off extends today and over the course of the next week, I'll come out of that one mildly ahead.
Long USD via short EUR, GBP and Silver is still working well for me as a portfolio hedge, although I panicked out of the Yen short at 133 back in August during the downside volatility incident. Was aware of people I consider to be smart money types taking the other side of the trade, including Ruffer, and decided it would be safer to cut and run. Was nervous about the 127 level - have watched Weston Nakumura's August Realvision presentations on the Yen, and am aware that's a critical VWAP level. Decided it was safer to not risk getting near it. Anyway, I missed the 140 level my original gameplan would have had me exiting at, this week. ;) In all honesty I cannot decide if my exit of the Yen trade was a result of being distracted by noise, or prudent risk management; but I lean in towards the latter.
Good call Dominic - from somebody who is still short Silver, although who could have almost trebled his money by now if he'd capitalised on the volatility by just covering at the worst of each sell-off of the past 4-5 weeks; rather than holding the short; not such a great call on my part.
I have to say that #HedgeyeNation were positioned well for this further sell-off, although my implementation of it by shorting the NASDAQ has still proved tricky - shorting and holding is a bad strategy. Still, if the sell-off extends today and over the course of the next week, I'll come out of that one mildly ahead.
Long USD via short EUR, GBP and Silver is still working well for me as a portfolio hedge, although I panicked out of the Yen short at 133 back in August during the downside volatility incident. Was aware of people I consider to be smart money types taking the other side of the trade, including Ruffer, and decided it would be safer to cut and run. Was nervous about the 127 level - have watched Weston Nakumura's August Realvision presentations on the Yen, and am aware that's a critical VWAP level. Decided it was safer to not risk getting near it. Anyway, I missed the 140 level my original gameplan would have had me exiting at, this week. ;) In all honesty I cannot decide if my exit of the Yen trade was a result of being distracted by noise, or prudent risk management; but I lean in towards the latter.